# Gold Rights Response / Structural Model Branch Determination v1.0

Fixed: 2026-08-27 JST  
Decision: `THREE_ISOLATED_LANES_NO_AUTOMATIC_SUBSTITUTION`  
Public Gold state: `UNKNOWN / RIGHTS HOLD`

## Disposition

1. **World Bank Pink Sheet Gold** remains the primary free official price candidate. The World Bank has only forwarded the inquiry; all seven field-level rights questions remain unresolved. One follow-up may be sent no earlier than 2026-09-03 07:00 JST if no substantive response is received.
2. **IBA/LBMA licensed Gold candidates** are closed for the current unincorporated individual applicant. Reopening requires new company/business facts, written IBA eligibility confirmation, and accepted licence terms. A domain email or sole-proprietor registration alone is not treated as sufficient.
3. **Gold Physical Supply Structural State** is conditionally viable only as a separately named, non-price research candidate. It is not selected and cannot replace either price lane.

If the World Bank lane remains unresolved after the single follow-up, an isolated structural evaluation lane may open on 2026-09-11 07:00 JST. This does not select or publish the candidate.

## Structural candidate preregistration

Official source family: U.S. Geological Survey National Minerals Information Center, Gold Statistics and Information / Mineral Commodity Summaries.

| Component | Required official fields | Frozen transform | Binding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mine Supply Trend | World mine production, annual | 3-year annualized log growth; Contracting <= -1%, Expanding >= +1%, otherwise Stable | Pending exact file, field, unit and revision binding |
| Reserve Coverage | World reserves and world mine production, annual | Reserves / production; trailing 20 completed-year percentile: Scarce <=33, Abundant >=67, otherwise Normal | Pending exact file, field, unit and revision binding |

Final descriptive class:

- `STRUCTURALLY_TIGHTENING`: supply Contracting and coverage not Abundant.
- `STRUCTURALLY_EASING`: supply Expanding and coverage not Scarce.
- `MIXED`: other complete combinations.
- `UNKNOWN`: missing, withheld, nonpositive, discontinuous, isolated method break, or insufficient completed history.

USGS describes its Gold information as covering worldwide supply, demand and material flow. Mineral Commodity Summaries are annual and contain production, reserves, resources and trends. USGS-authored data are generally public domain, with source credit requested. Exact Gold table fields and any embedded third-party material must still be checked at Raw binding.

Official references:

- https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/gold-statistics-and-information
- https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/mineral-commodity-summaries
- https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits
- https://databank.worldbank.org/databases/commodity-price-data

## Interpretation and release boundary

The structural candidate is not a Gold price, Total Return, valuation, attractiveness, monetary-demand or trading signal. It must retain its distinct name and version. No price proxy, interpolation, carry-forward, cross-provider splice, threshold transfer or automatic lane switch is permitted.

No exact Raw has been bound or downloaded; no Transform, Backtest, OOS, Forward Validation or result inspection has started. Preview and Production Emit remain blocked. Any future release requires exact official Raw binding, a separate rights review, version lock before result access, Cold Start, prospective Forward Validation, a new Snapshot and explicit human approval.